Re: (ASCEND) ISDN is dying out - DSL is killing it

[Mitchell Arnone <mitchell.arnone@occ.treas.gov>]

Yes, DSL is able to provide greater bandwidth but just because a user has 
384kb bandwidth available doesn't mean that 384kb bandwidth will be used.  
We did a study on bandwidth usage by workstations.  We learned that a 
single PC on an ethernet network will have to be doing some fairly heavy 
data transfers to ever exceed 64kb bandwidth.  Average bandwidth 
utilization is usually around the 10 to 20 kb range since 90% of a typical 
workstations time is spent idle waiting for the user to hit a key or 
transfer a file.  Bandwidth utilization goes is spurts... a some peaks and 
lots of valleys.  

One thing we discovered is that by providing more bandwidth to individual 
remote users we actually reduced the burden on the network and saved money. 
 Since data transfers happen more quickly, sessions can be shorter in 
duration.  And fewer retransmits than with analog connections means less 
burden on the system, shorter sessions and better end user performance.

So will there really be a meltdown?  After reviewing our test results and 
considering the bandwidth increases constantly being applied to the 
Internet backbone and host of other independant privider networks being 
built every day, I don't think so... at least not for a long long time!

Mitch
-------------
Original Text
From: "Bob Atkins" <bob@cherokee.digilink.net>, on 5/19/99 1:12 AM:
To: SMTP@DC2@OCC[<jjb@znet.com>]
Cc: SMTP@DC2@OCC[<ascend-users@max.bungi.com>]


> Jack Bailey wrote:
> 
> > Bob Atkins wrote:
> >
> > It is becoming painfully obvious to us that ISDN is going the way
> > of the 9600 baud modem. We are seeing a steady migration of ISDN
> > customers over to DSL service.
> > 
> > Is anyone else seeing the same thing?
> 
> Yep, and you can blame the obscene pricing.

I completely agree. Sooner (more likely) or later the ISPs that are
offering modem pricing for Megabit bandwidths are going to come to
a grinding halt. In the meantime DSL is modem price wars all over again
except now its invaded the leased access marketplace. I can't believe
what I see some of our competitors doing - truely suicidal.

Even the telcos don't realize how badly they are raping their *own*
customer base. Customer's are trading in ISDN and sometimes even Frame
Relay services that average them $300-$600/month in service charges
(without Internet bandwidth) for their $49.95/month 1.5M/384K DSL
Internet service (yes that's what PacBell is charging for their DSL
line and Internet service).

Sooner or later the telcos are going to realize their mistake and you
can be sure that they'll going crying to the CPUC to raise their
rates.  I think we (ISPs) should go to the CPUC at the same time and
demand that they *lower* their Frame Relay and ISDN rates because they
have demonstrated just how cheaply they can deliver similar services
over DSL!

As for other ISPs that are giving away Internet bandwidth over DSL it
will simply be a matter of time before they melt their networks.

Unfortunatly the average customer doesn't have a clue what they are
getting into and since the DSL ISP's network isn't melting down yet the
end user is seeing acceptable performance.

---
Bob Atkins
DigiLink

PS: I only get the digest of this archive so feel free to cc me on
postings.

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